GB household electricity bill forecast to 2030

GB household electricity bill forecast to 2030Where each component of the bill is heading by 2030, in real 2025 pounds per year for a benchmark 3100 kWh household. Ben James's own forecast, built from published regulatory determinations and conversations with GB power market modellers; not an official projection.Researched, built and maintained by Ben James, an independent energy analyst. Cite as: Ben James, GB Electricity Bills, https://www.electricitybills.uk. Bill components, 2025 actual versus 2030 forecast, £ per year, real 2025 prices.

Component

Group

2025

2030

Change

Wholesale

324.00

269.00

−55.00

Transmission

Network Costs

52.00

105.00

+53.00

Distribution

Network Costs

114.00

146.00

+32.00

Balancing

Network Costs

41.00

91.00

+50.00

Renewables Obligation

Generation Subsidies

102.00

17.00

−85.00

Feed in Tariffs

Generation Subsidies

23.00

26.00

+3.00

Contracts for Difference

Generation Subsidies

33.00

70.00

+37.00

Capacity Market

Generation Subsidies

28.00

45.00

+17.00

ECO

Misc

27.00

0.00

−27.00

Warm Home Discount

Misc

15.00

20.00

+5.00

Smart Meter Net Cost Charge

Misc

20.00

+0.00

AAHEDC

Misc

1.00

+0.00

Supplier costs

Misc

133.00

147.00

+14.00

Sizewell C

New Levies

4.00

19.00

+15.00

Carbon Capture (allocated)

New Levies

0.00

4.00

+4.00

Carbon Capture (remaining)

New Levies

0.00

3.00

+3.00

Extra levy share post-BICS

New Levies

0.00

5.00

+5.00

NCC

New Levies

3.00

7.00

+4.00

VAT @ 5%

Misc

46.00

54.00

+8.00

Total annual bill

966.00

1049.00

+83.00

Every dataset, without JavaScript

/llms.txt — summary of the site, its datasets, key figures and definitions.

/data/ — index of all tables and CSV downloads.

Bill breakdown by component (CSV) — annual cost of every component of a GB household electricity bill since financial year 2015-16.

Wholesale electricity and gas prices (CSV) — daily GB day-ahead power and gas prices in £/MWh, nominal and CPI-adjusted, updated each weekday.

2030 bill forecast (CSV) — component-by-component projection to 2030.

Pages on this site

Bill breakdown — a household bill split by component, by financial year.

Wholesale monitor — daily and half-hourly GB wholesale electricity prices, gas prices, intraday price shape and the gas–electricity linkage.

2030 forecast — where each component of the bill is heading.

How the energy price cap works — Ofgem's wholesale allowance methodology: observation windows, the 3-1.5-12 hedging approach, shaping and backwardation.

AR7 cheat sheet — how Contracts for Difference work and what Allocation Round 7 means for bills.